Some thoughts on the November Nine

In the wee hours of Sunday morning, after eight days of play, the field at the World Series of Poker main event was whittled down to the nine men who will duke it out in four months for the title. Eye-popping numbers are involved: 7,319 players put up the $10,000 to enter, and the winner earns a couple of pennies less than $9 million. Each final tablist is guaranteed a minimum of $811,000. Must be nice.
LOOK OUT FOR CHEONG
I've been voraciously devouring the WSOP coverage on Pokernews.com, and with the November Nine set, I'm ready to go out on a limb and pick a winner.
I'd never heard of this guy before the main event started, but I've got an inkling Joseph Cheong (pictured right) might win the whole thing. I just like the cut of his jib. He came into Day 8, with 27 players remaining, as the chip leader, but suffered a brutal early beat against Filippo Candio. All the money got in on a 665 flop, with Cheong's aces crushing Candio's 7s5s. The turn came the 8s, giving Candio an open-ended straight draw, which he filled when the river came 4c.
That beat cut Cheong's 24 million stack in half, and after beginning the day as a lock to make the November Nine, he was suddenly in the middle of the pack. But the 24-year-old showed great mental fortitude to build his stack back up, peaking at 40 million before finishing up about where he started, around 23.5 million. That leaves him third in chips heading to November - in great shape.
My sudden man-crush on Cheong's game was sealed when I found out he's a deadly online multi-table tournament specialist. I loved what he had to say to ESPN after the November Nine lineup was set: "I think I have an advantage. I've played over 10,000 tournaments and I think that experience plays to my advantage. There are a lot of solid guys here, but I think I'm going to win this tournament."
Dang. That's a confident cat.
If anyone cares to wager, I'll offer an even-money bet: I get Cheong and Michael Mizrachi (seventh in chips at around 14.5 million), and you get the other seven guys in the field. Pretty favourable odds, by any measure. Come get some.

SOOOO SICK
Poker is a cruel game - just ask Matt Affleck (pictured left). He busted in gut-wrenching fashion in a fascinating hand with Jonathan Duhamel.
Here's how it went down. Duhamel opened with a raise to 550,000, and Affleck reraised to 1.55 million. Duhamel reraised it right back to 3.95 million, and Affleck flat-called.
The flop came down 10d9c7h, and Duhamel checked. Affleck bet 5 million, Duhamel called. Turn was the Qd, and Affleck shipped the rest of his stack - 11.6 million total.
Duhamel eventually called, and Affleck tabled the rockets - AsAc. Duhamel had JhJc - one pair and an open-ended straight draw. The river, from the depths of hell, was the 8d to complete Duhamel's straight. Affleck was out in 15th place, and Duhamel had a monster stack. He'll be the chip leader in November.
Looking at the hand, Duhamel was certainly behind when the chips went in on the turn - he had 10 outs, and Affleck was a 77 per cent favourite. But the thing is, he was actually getting the right odds to call. There was roughly 30 million in the pot when Affleck shipped on the turn for 11.6 million. Duhamel needed approximately 3-1 odds for the call to be correct, and he was getting pretty close to that.
Duhamel's call would be reasonable in a cash game, but in terms of tournament strategy, I believe it was a mistake. I'm not sure it's advisable to call off the vast majority of your chips and put yourself on the brink of elimination in a spot where you're only 23 per cent to win. But Duhamel had a chance to claim a dominating chip lead in the WSOP main event, and he thought it worthwhile. I guess he just has more heart than me.
Affleck's payday was a couple bucks north of $500,000, but it's probably no stretch to say nobody's ever been that unhappy to win a half-million.