Final thoughts on the final table

The 2010 edition of the World Series of Poker main event final table will go down in history as perhaps the most dramatic and entertaining WSOP final tables of all time. I’ve had a couple weeks to digest how it all went down; here are my thoughts.
OH CANADA!
Congrats to Montreal native Jonathan Duhamel (pictured above) for becoming the first Canadian to win the main event. He didn’t play the best poker at the final table (more on that in a minute) but he got lucky in some big spots, and then finished things off with overwhelming aggression.
Certain members of the poker media have wondered aloud whether Duhamel’s win will cause a poker explosion in Canada, similar to what happened when Chris Moneymaker won in 2003. I tend to think that’s not going to materialize. The thing is, Canadians already love poker. The game has been well-exposed in Canada on TV, and most of those who might be inclined to play, already do.
If there’s a poker explosion, it’ll be in Quebec. The French-speaking media apparently loves Duhamel – RDS, the francophone arm of TSN, sent a camera crew down to Vegas to document the 23-year-old’s every move leading up to the final table. How to you say check-raise en francais?
I WAS RIGHT ABOUT CHEONG (SORT OF)
Back in July, I predicted Joseph Cheong would win the main event. I really admired his perseverance and sharp play in rebuilding his stack after Filippo Candio gave him a sick beat leading up to the final table.
By and large, Cheong’s performance at the final table justified my faith in him. He looked awesome on TV during the early stages, and from reading various hand-by-hand blogs after watching the telecast, he absolutely dominated the table to an extent that wasn’t really reflected in the TV coverage. I was particularly impressed with the way he induced Matthew Jarvis to bluff off half his stack on one of the early hands.
What folks are going to remember Cheong for, unfortunately, is one of the all-time great blow-ups. He built his stack from 23.5 million at the start to over 100 million when it was down to three-handed between himself, Duhamel and John Racener. Racener was short-stacked, and it seemed like just a matter of time before Cheong and Duhamel locked horns heads-up.
But then Cheong decided to six-bet all in against Duhamel with A7o, and was called by the Quebecker’s QQ. The queens held, crippling Cheong, and he was eliminated a couple hands later.
I listened to audio of the post-tourney media scrums with the players, and Cheong basically said he made a read and went with it. He said he’d probably do it the same way if he found himself in the same spot again. Obviously it was an epic mistake, but I respect that the guy has so much confidence in his reads. If you’re not confident in poker, you’re screwed.
Part of Cheong’s thinking was, he felt he could get Duhamel off a hand like QQ. And honestly, if I’d been in Duhamel’s shoes, I would have been hard-pressed to call off my chips in that spot. In his post-match interview, though, Duhamel said it was an “easy call” – which implies that because of Cheong’s constant aggression, he didn’t give him credit for a big hand. Failing to consider his table image was Cheong’s biggest error, in my mind.
It says a lot about Cheong’s skill that even after he blew off such a huge stack, the folks at ESPN.com were still blown away by the clinic he put on prior to that.
MIZRACHI BLEW IT
The most recognizable pro at the final table was Michael “The Grinder” Mizrachi. After starting the day seventh in chips, he grinded his way up to the chip lead at the dinner break. He had the biggest stack when play got to five-handed, but he managed to bust in fifth place.
Grinder’s tournament came down to three crucial hands – two of which he played badly, and one of which he got unlucky on. On the first key hand, he open-raised with A8 suited, and then the short-stacked Racener shoved all in. Racener had been playing tight all day, but Grinder decided to take an ill-advised shot at him. Racener had Mizrachi dominated with AK, and his hand held to take a big chunk out of Grinder’s stack.
Later on, Racener gave Duhamel a sick beat when his AQ sucked out against AK, all in preflop. The very next hand, Duhamel raised in the small blind with A9o. Mizrachi shipped it from the big blind with 33, and after humming and hawing for a long while, Duhamel called off his stack. I think this was a brutal call by Duhamel – the best he could have hoped for there was a coin flip, and he could have easily been dominated. Mizrachi had an incredulous look on his face when Duhamel showed A9. At any rate, Duhamel was extremely fortunate to flop a nine and double up.
The eventual champ executed a lovely trap to knock out Mizrachi. Duhamel limped in the small blind with AA, and the Grinder checked with Q8o. The flop came queen high . . . Duhamel checked . . . Grinder bet . . . Duhamel check-raised . . . Grinder snap-shoved . . . and Duhamel called. Two cards later, Mizrachi was busto.
When Mizrachi took the lead at the dinner break, everyone expected him to run over the table from that point. That he managed to blow off all his chips in short order was quite stunning.
TIGHT PLAYERS HAD THE RIGHT IDEA
Racener and Candio were by far the tightest players at the table, and I have to give them both a certain amount of props for that. It ain’t sexy to play snug, but there’s something to be said for moving up the pay scale. Candio netted just over $3 million for fourth place, and runner-up Racener won $5.5 million for essentially sitting there and waiting for everyone else to beat each other up.
John Dolan, who began the day second in chips with 46 million but busted in sixth, might be a richer man today had he played as conservatively as Racener and Candio.

Random thoughts

--> When you read Bill Simmons’s excellent and entertaining columns on ESPN.com, you assume they’re written by a man’s man. Someone who watches football in a tricked-out man cave. Someone who speaks in a deep baritone. Then you hear his podcast, and he’s got this high-pitched, nasal voice. It’s both jarring and hilarious. It’s like taking a sip from a cup that you assume is filled with orange juice, and it’s milk.

--> NBC aired a “Women of Saturday Night Live” special this week, and it reminded me that Rachel Dratch is easily the most underrated performer in SNL history. Take that hyperbolic statement for what it's worth - I’m too young to remember a lot of the old-school SNLers. But during my era, Dratch was, to steal a poker phrase, the nuts. Only thing keeping her from proper recognition: She’s kinda funny-looking. But that’s part of what makes her hilarious! Do yourself a favour: Go to YouTube and type in “Debbie Downer” in the search bar. You're welcome.
--> I was looking at a print ad the other day that made reference to “faves.” As in, “My faves include skinny jeans and cargo pants.” It occurred to me that the only place I’ve run across the word “faves” is in ads. I’ve literally never heard anyone use that word in conversation. Granted, I’m not exactly hip to all the slang kids are using these days, but I figure I would have come across it once or twice if this was a word people used. To quote a venerable cinema classic (Zoolander), I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!
--> So the other day I was listening to the soundtrack for the movie “Magnolia,” which mainly consists of tracks by the understated-yet-excellent Aimee Mann. It occurred to me that it would rule to hear the White Stripes cover Mann’s “Save Me.” Super-weird mix of artists, but a good song is a good song. I want to hear it with a metal/blues twist. Get it done, Jack White.

--> A couple months ago, on this very blog, I went on the record with a prediction that Joseph Cheong (pictured right) would win the World Series of Poker main event. With the final table set to play out next week, I stand by that. I also stand by my offer to wager even money on Cheong (third in chips) and Michael Mizrachi (seventh in chips) against the rest of the final table field. ESPN.com’s Gary Wise recently wrote a really insightful feature on Cheong. Here’s the URL: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker/columns/story?columnist=wise_gary&id=5757063
--> Speaking of poker, October was quite literally a grand month for me. I turned a $1,000 profit on PokerStars, marking the third four-digit month in the past year or so. I was just playing aggressive, trusting my reads, and crushing folks. My ROI, roughly calculated, was around 45 per cent – just plain sweet. Bankroll = $6,000.

Some thoughts on the November Nine

In the wee hours of Sunday morning, after eight days of play, the field at the World Series of Poker main event was whittled down to the nine men who will duke it out in four months for the title. Eye-popping numbers are involved: 7,319 players put up the $10,000 to enter, and the winner earns a couple of pennies less than $9 million. Each final tablist is guaranteed a minimum of $811,000. Must be nice.
LOOK OUT FOR CHEONG
I've been voraciously devouring the WSOP coverage on Pokernews.com, and with the November Nine set, I'm ready to go out on a limb and pick a winner.
I'd never heard of this guy before the main event started, but I've got an inkling Joseph Cheong (pictured right) might win the whole thing. I just like the cut of his jib. He came into Day 8, with 27 players remaining, as the chip leader, but suffered a brutal early beat against Filippo Candio. All the money got in on a 665 flop, with Cheong's aces crushing Candio's 7s5s. The turn came the 8s, giving Candio an open-ended straight draw, which he filled when the river came 4c.
That beat cut Cheong's 24 million stack in half, and after beginning the day as a lock to make the November Nine, he was suddenly in the middle of the pack. But the 24-year-old showed great mental fortitude to build his stack back up, peaking at 40 million before finishing up about where he started, around 23.5 million. That leaves him third in chips heading to November - in great shape.
My sudden man-crush on Cheong's game was sealed when I found out he's a deadly online multi-table tournament specialist. I loved what he had to say to ESPN after the November Nine lineup was set: "I think I have an advantage. I've played over 10,000 tournaments and I think that experience plays to my advantage. There are a lot of solid guys here, but I think I'm going to win this tournament."
Dang. That's a confident cat.
If anyone cares to wager, I'll offer an even-money bet: I get Cheong and Michael Mizrachi (seventh in chips at around 14.5 million), and you get the other seven guys in the field. Pretty favourable odds, by any measure. Come get some.

SOOOO SICK
Poker is a cruel game - just ask Matt Affleck (pictured left). He busted in gut-wrenching fashion in a fascinating hand with Jonathan Duhamel.
Here's how it went down. Duhamel opened with a raise to 550,000, and Affleck reraised to 1.55 million. Duhamel reraised it right back to 3.95 million, and Affleck flat-called.
The flop came down 10d9c7h, and Duhamel checked. Affleck bet 5 million, Duhamel called. Turn was the Qd, and Affleck shipped the rest of his stack - 11.6 million total.
Duhamel eventually called, and Affleck tabled the rockets - AsAc. Duhamel had JhJc - one pair and an open-ended straight draw. The river, from the depths of hell, was the 8d to complete Duhamel's straight. Affleck was out in 15th place, and Duhamel had a monster stack. He'll be the chip leader in November.
Looking at the hand, Duhamel was certainly behind when the chips went in on the turn - he had 10 outs, and Affleck was a 77 per cent favourite. But the thing is, he was actually getting the right odds to call. There was roughly 30 million in the pot when Affleck shipped on the turn for 11.6 million. Duhamel needed approximately 3-1 odds for the call to be correct, and he was getting pretty close to that.
Duhamel's call would be reasonable in a cash game, but in terms of tournament strategy, I believe it was a mistake. I'm not sure it's advisable to call off the vast majority of your chips and put yourself on the brink of elimination in a spot where you're only 23 per cent to win. But Duhamel had a chance to claim a dominating chip lead in the WSOP main event, and he thought it worthwhile. I guess he just has more heart than me.
Affleck's payday was a couple bucks north of $500,000, but it's probably no stretch to say nobody's ever been that unhappy to win a half-million.