Once again, the Alouettes

For the second year in a row, the Saskatchewan Roughriders allowed an emminently winnable Grey Cup game to slip through their fingers against the Montreal Alouettes. The circumstances were less painful the second time around - thank goodness - but the fact remains, the Riders could be Grey Cup champs right now had they made just one or two more plays. That is a lousy realization.
Anyway, I figured I'd revisit my pregame predictions to see how poorly I did.
ANTHONY CALVILLO WILL STRUGGLE
I was definitely wrong about this, but not by as much as you might think. It's hard to say that a QB who throws for 342 yards struggled. But Calvillo definitely struggled at times, particularly in the second quarter, and the fact his team only put up 21 points underscores the fact that this was far from a vintage Alouettes offensive performance.
A big part of my Calvillo prediction was based on the notion it would be cold at Commonwealth Stadium. It was just below the freezing mark at kickoff, though - not nearly the frigid weather I'd been hoping for. In the end, Calvillo managed the game like a pro and made just enough plays in the passing game to fend off the Riders.
IF ALS WIN, COBOURNE WILL WIN MVP
I whiffed on this one, big-time. Cobourne, the Alouettes running back, got off to a great start in the first quarter, but his team abandoned the run at that point and never went back to him in any serious way. That decision, in my mind, greatly contributed to Montreal's struggles to move the ball during that point of the game.
Montreal just continued to ride the arm of Calvillo, for better or for worse, and he eventually cracked the Riders' blitz-happy scheme with quick-hit passes to Jamel Richardson and S.J. Green. The two jumbo-sized receivers look nearly identical, as they wear similar numbers (18 and 19) and tinted visors. They utterly terrorized the Sask secondary, and Richardson was full value for the MVP award.
WILL DURANT COME THROUGH? NOT A CLUE.
Yeah, I pretty much nailed this one, in that I foresaw that the Riders QB would be wildly inconsistent once again. After a rough first quarter, Durant moved the ball well in the second quarter, but several promising drives stalled short of the end zone.
Durant was ice-cold in the third quarter, but finally got something going in the fourth, marching the Riders down a short field for a major to cut the deficit to 21-18.
On the ensuing Als possession, Montreal drove into field goal range, but placekicker Damon Duval missed his second field goal of the game. (How bad has Duval been in the last two Grey Cups? I don't see how the Als could bring him back next year.) Durant got the ball back with less than two minutes left, but he threw an interception that essentially ended the game.
I feel Durant was hamstrung to a certain extent by the Riders' offensive game plan - I would have liked to see them take more shots down the field, and utilize Durant's running ability to a greater extent. A lack of offensive creativity hurt Saskatchewan's chances.
FINAL SCORE
I was predicting (hoping?) the Riders would win 24-21. When Saskatchewan got the ball back with two minutes left, my prediction was still very much in play. If the Riders had driven into field goal range and forced OT, there was a possibility I could have nailed it right on the nose.
It didn't work out that way, but I'll take a little solace in the fact I was correct that the Grey Cup would be a defensive struggle, rather the offensive show everyone was predicting.
Congrats to Calvillo and the Alouettes. Well done, well deserved.

Fearful Grey Cup predictions

As a Saskatchewan Roughriders fan, I am both wildly excited and deeply nervous about the Grey Cup game on Sunday. Last season, you'll recall, the Riders lost the CFL title game 28-27 to the Montreal Alouettes when they sent out an extra man for Montreal's field goal attempt on the final play. Als kicker Damon Duval, who had struggled all game long, missed his first attempt, but the Riders' too-many-men penalty gave him another try, which he made. That couldn't possibly happen again, could it? COULD IT?
At any rate, here are a few hunches I have about how Riders-Alouettes II will play out.
CALVILLO WILL STRUGGLE
I was in attendance at Regina's Taylor Field for the 2003 Grey Cup, and watched Montreal QB Anthony Calvillo drop an absolute stink-bomb in a 34-22 loss to the Edmonton Eskimos. The conditions were ridiculously cold that day, and it seemed that the frigid temperatures didn't agree with Calvillo.
Even in last year's Grey Cup in Calgary, Calvillo played very poorly until the fourth quarter. The colder it is in Edmonton on Sunday, the better it is for the Riders. The forecast is calling for -6 C with 10 km/h winds on Sunday afternoon, but hopefully that's enough to cool off Calvillo.
IF THE ALS WIN, COBOURNE WILL BE MVP
Montreal's real ace in the hole, to me, is running back Avon Cobourne. He's a tough little runner, and the Riders have had a hard time stopping the run. The question is, if Calvillo struggles, how quickly will Alouettes coach Marc Trestman identify that and put the ball in Cobourne's hands?
WILL DURANT COME THROUGH? NOT A CLUE.
I've titled this post "Fearful predictions," and I'm honestly too scared to venture a guess as to how Saskatchewan QB Darian Durant will play on Sunday. I have no idea what to expect from Durant on a week-to-week basis, or even quarter-to-quarter at times this season. He's been consistently inconsistent, despite leading the CFL in passing yardage.
I'll say this for Durant, though - he may not always get it done in the prettiest fashion, but he's a winner. He's also the kind of QB who won't lock in on one receiver - last week in Calgary, with favourite targets Andy Fantuz and Weston Dressler blanketed by the Stampeders, he looked for Chris Getzlaf more often.
It should be noted that Montreal's defence surrendered the most passing yardage in the CFL, but also led the league in interceptions. Durant threw 22 picks, and he's got to to a better job of taking care of the ball on Sunday.
FINAL SCORE
Since I'm thoroughly biased . . . Roughriders 24, Alouettes 21. The weather will help keep the offences in check, and Durant will make just enough plays down the stretch to get the job done. And Saskatchewan will have the proper number of players on the field at all times.