My so-called poker blog has been collecting cyber-space dust for a while now. I simply haven’t been playing much these days, for all the same issues discussed in previous posts.
But last week, I scratched my poker itch in a huge way. My wife and I joined my buddy Jayeson and his wife Ashley for four days/three nights in Vegas, and the gents managed to shake loose to play a tournament at Caesar’s Palace on Monday.
I’ll recap how I fared in a later post, but at this point, I’d like to unveil a new blog feature – the hand of the week. Hopefully, I’ll play an interesting hand every seven days or so, and trot it out for you people to chew over.
THE SITUATION
We’re just inside the money bubble. My chip stack is 144,500 after winning a nice pot holding QQ on the button. Average stack is 159,000. The blinds are 5,000-10,000 with a 1,000 ante, so most stacks are rather shallow. There are nine players at the table.
MY HOLDING
I’ve got QcTc in the cutoff.
PREFLOP ACTION
A solid middle-position player limps into the pot. (Decision point: Fold, call, or raise?)
I elect to call. The button folds, the small blind completes, and then the short-stacked big blind ships all in for 48,000 total. The original limper flat-calls. (Decision point: Fold, call or raise?)
I elect to flat-call as well. The small blind folds.
ON THE FLOP
The flop comes down Q74, rainbow. The middle-position limper leads out with a bet of 25,000. I have 96,500 left. (Decision point: Fold, call or raise?)
HOW WOULD YOU PLAY IT?
In this “hand of the week” format, I think I’ll usually be offering my analysis and breakdown of the hand at this point. But in this case, I’ll keep you in suspense and save my analysis for the next post, as I recap my entire tournament.
I’d be curious to hear how the rest of you might have played this hand. That’s what the comments section is for, folks.
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I probably would have pushed. He could have AA or KK...more likely he flopped a set I would think but I'm taking my chances at that point. So what happened?
ReplyDeleteHey Matt, sorry to take so long updating this blog. My computer busted again. That's my excuse, and I'm sticking to it.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I've finally posted my tournament recap, and you'll find out how the hand played out at the bottom of that post. Turned out, my opponent had 77 and had flopped a set. His holding made perfect sense the way the hand played out, but you're right - it's awfully tough to get away from top pair given the stack sizes.
In retrospect, I wish he would have just opened with a raise with 77 in middle position. That's certainly how I would have played the hand, and I would have folded preflop if he had raised. Oh well. It worked out pretty well for him.
I considered he might be slowplaying AA or KK, but ultimately I felt he would have re-shoved preflop to isolate after the big blind moved all in. So I felt that was rather unlikely.
Thanks for your input.
This is a comment from my buddy Kenny. He couldn't seem to post a comment for some reason, so he emailed me his take on the hand.
ReplyDelete"It is very hard/almost impossible to answer that question without having a feel for the table and what their tendencies are, etc.
I would have folded after the preflop all-in and smooth call from the middle position guy.
A smooth call there from Mr. Middle Position just seems like he wants you to come along for the ride...
But, since you called with Q10 and hit top pair on a fairly harmless looking board, it seems to me that you are now committed -- I would ship it, because if you call you are basically pot committed (having committed half your stack, I doubt you are going anywhere on the turn or river).
If for some reason you had a read on this guy that his $25,000 bet was a milking bet and that he was super strong, then I would fold.
Calling to me is the worst option."
In regards to Kenny's comment . . . there is certainly a case to be made for folding after the big blind shoves and the original limper smooth-calls. It's a question of pot odds vs. conserving tournament chips.
ReplyDeleteUnquestionably, the pot odds indicate calling preflop is a reasonable option. I was asked to call 38,000 more, with 110,000 already in the pot (the shove, the call, plus the small blind and 9,000 in antes). That's basically 3-to-1. Pretty compelling. That's why I called. Plus, I gave the short-stack all-in very little credit for having a hand. And I was right – he had A8o.
On the flip side, the preflop call after the shove represented 28.3 per cent of my remaining stack. That's a massive chunk. So by folding, I would have been able to conserve those chips for another confrontation.
It's a decent idea, but at the time, I felt a call was justified. I still think I did the right thing there in the big picture, but based on the short-run result . . .